Tokyo’s climate follows Japan’s four-season rhythm with sharp contrasts between each period. Timing your visit correctly makes a significant difference - not just in weather but in how crowded the city is and how much you pay for a bed. Here is an honest breakdown of every month.
Quick Summary
| Season | Months | Temps (°C) | Crowds | Budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring | Mar–May | 10–22 | ★★★★★ | High |
| Summer | Jun–Aug | 26–35 | ★★★ | Mid |
| Autumn | Sep–Nov | 12–25 | ★★★★ | Mid–High |
| Winter | Dec–Feb | 2–10 | ★★ | Low |
Month-by-Month Breakdown
January - Cold and dry, 2–8°C. New Year crowds clear by January 4. Low hotel prices and uncrowded museums. Crowds: 2/5.
February - Similar to January. Plum blossoms begin in late February (Shinjuku Gyoen, Koishikawa Korakuen). Crowds: 2/5.
March - Temperatures rise to 8–15°C. Cherry blossom season begins late March in mild years. Crowds build rapidly in the final week. Crowds: 3/5.
April - Peak cherry blossom month, then Golden Week from April 29. Hotels book out. Temperatures reach 15–20°C. Crowds: 5/5.
May - Post-Golden Week the city quietens briefly, then spring weather is excellent - 18–24°C with lower humidity than summer. Crowds: 3/5.
June - Rainy season (tsuyu) runs mid-June to mid-July. High humidity, 22–26°C, overcast skies. Hydrangeas bloom attractively in temple gardens. Crowds: 2/5.
July - Hot and humid, 26–32°C, afternoon thunderstorms common. Sumida fireworks festival (last Saturday of July) is spectacular. Crowds: 3/5.
August - Peak summer heat - 30–35°C, humidity above 80%. Obon week (around August 13–16) sees domestic travel surge. Crowds: 3/5.
September - Still warm and humid early in the month; typhoon risk is highest September to early October. Temperatures ease to 20–26°C by late September. Crowds: 2/5.
October - Crisp and clear, 15–22°C. Early autumn foliage begins in the final week. One of the best months to visit. Crowds: 3/5.
November - Peak autumn foliage from early to mid-November. Particularly beautiful in Shinjuku Gyoen and Rikugien Garden. Hotel prices rise again. Crowds: 4/5.
December - Cold sets in (5–12°C), crowds thin. Christmas illuminations are excellent in Marunouchi and Odaiba. Avoid December 29–January 3 when attractions are partly closed. Crowds: 2/5.
Festivals and Events Calendar
- Late March / Early April - Hanami (cherry blossom viewing) season; free picnics in Ueno and Shinjuku Gyoen
- Late July - Sumida River Fireworks Festival; Awa Odori Festivals begin in Tokyo boroughs
- August 13–16 - Obon (Bon Odori festivals at local shrines)
- Late October - Tokyo International Film Festival
- November - Shichi-Go-San (November 15): photogenic children’s ceremony at major shrines
- December - Hagoita-Ichi Fair at Senso-ji (December 17–19); Illumination season
Budget Tips by Season
Cheapest: January and February offer hotel prices 20–35% below peak-season rates. Early December (before the 20th) is similarly affordable.
We compare areas and price ranges in our Tokyo where-to-stay guide, and you can check Tokyo hotel availability for your dates before rates climb.
Mid-range: June (rainy season) and September see moderate prices - not rock-bottom but well below spring and autumn peaks.
Most expensive: Late March through Golden Week, and November. Book 2–3 months ahead for reasonable rates during cherry blossom season.
Practical note: Tokyo hotel prices fluctuate more with events than seasons. Always cross-reference your dates with the J-League schedule, major concerts, and the annual Tokyo Marathon (March) when budgeting.
Verdict
The two windows that offer the best balance of weather, experiences, and manageable crowds are mid-May (post-Golden Week, warm and dry) and October (clear skies, early foliage, no typhoon risk). Cherry blossom season is magical but genuinely crowded and expensive - go in if you have booked accommodation months ahead; skip it if you are price-sensitive or crowd-averse. Winter is underrated for city exploration if you dress warmly. Once your dates are set, Tokyo tours and experiences are worth booking ahead in peak weeks.