Japan’s Meteorological Corporation (日本気象株式会社) has published its annual autumn foliage - koyo (紅葉) - forecast for 2026, providing expected colour-change start dates and peak timing across the country’s main viewing regions. The forecast comes as temperatures begin dropping across Hokkaido and the Japanese Alps, signalling the start of one of Japan’s most popular travel seasons.
What the 2026 Forecast Shows
The forecast is derived from summer temperature data and a proprietary model that tracks foliage progression. A cooler-than-average summer across northern Japan has pushed predicted peak timings slightly earlier than 2025 in Hokkaido and the Tohoku region, while central Honshu and Kansai are forecast to peak close to the historical average.
Hokkaido
- Daisetsuzan (Great Divide range) - first colour in the country, expected late September
- Shiretoko Peninsula and Lake Towada - early to mid-October
- Sapporo city parks - mid to late October
Tohoku
- Hakkoda Mountains and Lake Towada: mid-October
- Matsushima area: late October to early November
Nikko (Tochigi Prefecture)
- Iroha-zaka switchback road and Kegon Falls - late October, one of Japan’s most visited koyo spots
Japanese Alps (Nagano, Gifu)
- Kamikochi valley - late September to mid-October
- Norikura and Shiraito Falls - mid-October
Kyoto and Kansai
- Peak colour in the famous Arashiyama, Eikan-do, and Tofuku-ji districts: typically mid to late November
- 2026 forecast: on track for approximately 18–25 November at peak institutions
Tokyo
- Rikugien and Koishikawa Korakuen: late November to early December
Why Autumn Is Japan’s Most Competitive Travel Period
Domestic and international travel demand during koyo season is consistently the highest of the year outside of Golden Week. Hotels in Kyoto, Nikko, and the Japanese Alps command peak-season rates from mid-October through late November, and popular ryokan (traditional inns) with garden views frequently sell out three to six months in advance.
Travellers who did not book accommodation in advance may find limited options at the most popular spots. It is worth considering alternatives: Nara combines accessible autumn colour with deer park and temple circuits; Hiroshima and Miyajima have quieter alternatives to Nikko and Kyoto for those arriving late.
Note also that the JR Pass price increase introduced in October 2026 applies to all pass types - travellers arriving for the koyo season will pay the new rates.
Planning Your Route
For those building a koyo itinerary, the classic approach is to follow the foliage south as it progresses. A three-week trip starting in Hokkaido in early October, moving through Tohoku and Nikko in mid-October, and ending in Kansai in late November works well. A ten-to-fourteen-day itinerary typically chooses between the north (Hokkaido, Tohoku, Alps) or the south (Nikko, Kansai, Hiroshima).
Our guide to Japan tours and activities covers options across the country, including guided autumn tours from the main cities. For bookable options right now, browse autumn tours across Japan on GetYourGuide. For Kyoto specifically, Kyoto tours includes the guided walking and cycling options that are particularly valuable during the peak foliage period when crowds require navigation.
Key Dates to Note
| Region | Colour Change Start | Expected Peak |
|---|---|---|
| Daisetsuzan, Hokkaido | Late September | Early October |
| Nikko | Mid-October | Late October |
| Japanese Alps | Late September | Mid-October |
| Kyoto | Early November | 18–25 November (forecast) |
| Tokyo | Mid-November | Late November |
All dates are forecast estimates subject to weather variation. The Meteorological Corporation updates its forecasts weekly through November.